Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
