A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
